Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

November 15 - November 21, 2024

Activity level:	moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B8.1 - C5.1
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 101-198
Events:	class C (1-13/day), class M (3-12/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 72-171

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

November 15 - November 21, 2024

Quiet:	Nov 15, 19 - 20
Unsettled:	Nov 15 - 16, 18, 21
Active:	Nov 16 - 17, 21
Minor storm:	Nov 17
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	We expect an active episode with possible minor storm effect about Sunday, November 17, because of near-equatorial coronal hole 92/+4. Then, since Tuesday November 19, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return. More unsettled conditions can occur also about Thursday, November 21, but we do not effect any storming event.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

November 15 - November 21, 2024

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – November 14, 2024

Of the three active regions in the past few days, two have fallen behind the western limb of the solar disk. Therefore, the solar flux has dropped significantly. The third sunspot group was AR3889, which crossed the central meridian midweek. Its size of over 400 millionths of the solar disk area, and in particular the optical "F" and magnetic "Beta-Gamma-Delta" configurations, indicate that the production of moderate size flares will continue. So because it is in the west, like most coronal holes, the solar wind should intensify and the Earth's magnetic field activity should increase.

This development, in fact, has already begun on November 14. First, CONDX worsened after the polarity of the longitudinal component of the interplanetary magnetic field changed to negative between 02 - 05 UT, while the density of protons in the solar wind increased. This was correctly followed by an increase in its velocity from 350 km/s to 440 km/s. Due to the anticipated increase in the solar wind, a further several days of turbulence is expected, followed by calming down only during the following week.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU