Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

July 12 - July 18, 2024

Activity level:	mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range C1.5 - C7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 120-260
Events:	class C (2-15/day), class M (0-15/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 90-250

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

July 12 - July 18, 2024

Quiet:	Jul 12, 16 - 18
Unsettled:	Jul 12 - 16
Active:	possible Jul 14 - 15
Minor storm:	possible about Jul 14
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	Because of current CME, we expect geomagnetic activity increase about Sunday, July 14. Before this event, and also after its culmination, we expect at most unsettled conditions. The end of currently forecasted period should be at most quiet, or quiet to unsettled, respectively.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

July 12 - July 18, 2024

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on:
Quiet to unsettled on:
Quiet to active on:
Unsettled to active on:
Active to disturbed:
Solar wind will intensify on:

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere July 12 - July 18, 2024
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – July 11, 2024

In early July, a sunspot group responsible for the May 10 superstorm reappeared on the southeastern limb. By the way, this superstorm caused thousands of satellites to drop in altitude, while research paper just accepted by the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets (source: spaceweather.com). The aforementioned group was designated AR3664 at the time, in subsequent solar rotations AR3697, AR3723, is visibne again, while in the same region are now AR3742, AR3743, and AR3745.

The most active is the rapidly growing AR3768, five times the size of the Earth. Most importantly, there is a coronal hole to the north of AR3768. Between mentiobed CH and AR we can expect a source of enhanced solar wind that will very likely head towards the Earth and cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 13-14. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, randomly influenced by sporadic layer E in the northern hemisphere of the Earth during the summer, affected by numerous solar flares, will develop even less regularly.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU