Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

January 17 - January 23, 2025

Activity level:	low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range C1.0-C4.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 120-200
Events:	class C (5-18/day), class M (5-13/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 80-220

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

January 17 - January 23, 2025

Quiet:	Jan 19, 22 - 23
Unsettled:	Jan 17, 19 - 22
Active:	Jan 17 - 18, 20 - 21
Minor storm:	possible Jan 17 - 18, 20 - 21
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	During the last days, we expect geomagnetic activity enhancement. Two active episodes with possible minor storm event can be expected, although with lower probability. At most of the currently forecasted period, we expect unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

January 17 - January 23, 2025

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere January 17 - January 23, 2025
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – January 16, 2025

There is no indication that the prediction of an upsurge in solar activity starting in mid-January will come to pass. The development is quieter, with no major solar flares occurring. The sunspot groups that are currently observable from Earth have stable magnetic fields. More important flares are therefore rather unlikely.

The geomagnetic field, while not calm, is not disturbed. Intervals of quiescence alternate irregularly with slight upswings in activity. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions are therefore not as good as we had hoped based on the predicted rise in solar activity, but they are not bad either. This type of development is likely to continue.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU