Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

April 12 - April 18, 2024

Activity level:	mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B5.2 - C2.1
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 110-185
Events:	class C (2-8/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 40-190

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

April 12 - April 18, 2024

Quiet:	Apr 12 - 13
Unsettled:	Apr 14 - 18
Active:	possible Apr 15 - 16, 18
Minor storm:	unlikely about Apr 18
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	Coming days, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet level till Saturday, April 13. Next days, we expect geomagnetic activity increase to generally unsettled level till Thursday, April 18. About Monday, April 15, and Thursday, April 18, an active event is possible.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

April 12 - April 18, 2024

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on:
Quiet to unsettled on:
Quiet to active on:
Unsettled to active on:
Active to disturbed:
Solar wind will intensify on:

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere April 12 - April 18, 2024
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – April 11, 2024

At the end of March, it was still possible to see large sunspot groups, during the last solar rotation marked as AR3614 and (especially the giant) AR3615. We will see them again on the eastern limb of the solar disk this weekend. This will end a roughly two-week period of relatively quiet solar activity without major solar flares.

The Sun's total X-ray output, which has dropped by almost an order of magnitude, will increase significantly, which will have a beneficial effect on shortwave propagation conditions. Daily MUF values will gradually increase, while active regions will be on the eastern half of the solar disk. For that reason here will be little probability of major geomagnetic disturbances. Of course, now that the peak of the 11-year cycle is approaching, events such as the eruption of solar plasma filaments that could affect the Earth cannot be ruled out.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU