Predikce sluneční a geomagnetické aktivity

Solar activity forecast for the period

March 21 - March 27, 2025

Activity level:	low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A):	in the range B9.5-C5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm):	a fluctuation in the range 105-198
Events:	class C (3-13/day), class M (1-10/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri):	in the range 70-180

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

March 21 - March 27, 2025

Quiet:	Mar 21 - 24
Unsettled:	Mar 21, 24 - 26
Active:	Mar 24 - 26
Minor storm:	Mar 25 - 27
Major storm:	0
Severe storm:	0
Geomagnetic activity summary:	After the last active events, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level. At the end of currently forecasted period, we expect active conditions return, generally. Within the interval March 25 - 27, another storming event is possible.

Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period

March 21 - March 27, 2025

Remarks:

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 21 - March 27, 2025
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – March 20, 2025

While the current solar activity is a bit lower than we would like and than would be consistent with the current phase of the solar cycle, it may be a prelude to another peak within the current 11-year cycle maximum. This hypothesis is supported by the starting shift of the sunspot activity from the southern hemisphere of the Sun to the northern hemisphere (see also the M-class flares in AR4031 and the following filament flare, i.e. in the northwest quadrant of the solar disc).

At the same time, the presently forecasted period is likely to begin with a transient decrease in geomagnetic activity. But this may be interrupted as early as March 23 if an enhanced solar wind blowing from solar coronal hole 24 hits Earth. If this happens in the daytime, a so-called positive phase of the disturbance could follow with an increase in MUF and a general improvement in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH

e-mail: ok1hh(at)crk.cz; ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU